Verstappen-Mercedes rumours intensify–but how likely is a move to the silver arrows?
Sights are set for the 2026 season, and so are the rumours. Red Bull’s underwhelming season–which sees the Austrian constructor languishing in fourth place in the Championship–has opened the door to speculation about the future of their four-time World Champion, Max Verstappen.
Photo: Red Bull Racing
F1’s ‘silly season’ has kicked off early, even as the championship nears only its second half. With multiple teams still undecided on their 2026 lineups, there hasn’t been a shortage of speculations. Several drivers have been linked to new seats–think: Bottas’ Cadillac rumours or Daniel Ricciardo’s alleged return to the grid. Yet, none of these rumours have clunked harder than the news about Verstappen’s alleged ‘contract talks’ with Mercedes.
The discourse centres around the Dutchman’s performance clause with the Milton Keynes-based team and alleged conversations with Mercedes’ team principal, Toto Wolff, as George Russell’s contract expires at the end of the season.
Both parties, however, have refused to partake in the ordeal. When asked about his future by Dutch media, Verstappen refused to answer, “the more I talk about it, the more it gets blown up in the media, and I don’t feel like dealing with that.” Similarly, Toto Wolff shrugged off allegations, and insisted that these talks should happen “behind close doors, not town halls.”
Both camps are playing their cards close to their chest, leaving fans and media theorizing about their next move: could a shock switch really be on the horizon?
VERSTAPPEN IS TECHNICALLY ALLOWED TO LEAVE
Red Bull signed Verstappen to a multi-year contract in 2021, with the World Champion’s contract set to run through 2028. However, contracts of this longitude often include exit or performance clauses that allow either party to terminate their relationship, should results fall short.
Allegedly, Verstappen’s exit clause allows him to walk out if Red Bull falls outside of the top three Constructors positions and/or if he is outside of the top three positions for the World Drivers’ Championship by the summer break.
With Red Bull running fourth in the Constructors’ Championship, Verstappen could activate the alleged exit clause. But, how realistic would that be before a major regulation change?
2026 OVERHAUL LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR COMPETITION
Come next season, there will be a major regulation change–one that’s expected to shake up the pecking order as it stands. The new racing cars will feature new power units, active aerodynamics, and are lighter and narrower to incentivize racing and improve overtaking.
At this point in the season, teams find themselves at a crossroads; some–if not most–already compromising their current season to focus on the development of their 2026 challengers. Who’s furthest ahead in their development remains unclear, but one thing is certain: with this regulation overhaul, 2026 could be anyone’s Championship to win, including Red Bull.
With multiple Championship wins under its belt, the Austrian team has shown clear dominance and mastery of the ground-effect era–not to mention the unmatched winning streaks achieved by the Verstappen-Red Bull duo in 2023 and the Dutchman’s fourth Driver’s Championship win in 2024. With that kind of recent success, is it the right moment to walk away from a title-winning team right before this major overhaul?
Verstappen doesn’t seem to think so. Regarding the unpredictability of the pecking order in 2026, Verstappen says: “Every team has question marks right now. No one has one hundred percent certainty. It’s very unpredictable. That’s why I have a contract with Red Bull.” He continues, “... the only thing that matters to me is that I need to be fast in the car I’m sitting in.”
THE CURRENT MERCEDES LINE-UP
The Antonelli-Russell line-up in the German outfit is also worth considering. Despite Antonelli being in his ‘rookie’ year, he has shown signs of quick adaptation and moments of brilliance, scoring his first podium position at the Canadian Grand Prix–after Norris DNF’ed in a position tussle with his teammate.
His senior teammate, Russell, has also shown consistent pace in his Mercedes seat. The Briton has regularly crossed the finish line in point-scoring positions and, aside from the McLaren duo and Verstappen, is the only other Grand Prix winner this season.
Bottom line is that both drivers are performing this season and delivering results for the team. While there could have well been talks with the four-time World Champion, Wolff seems to be happy with the status quo, “I think we are very transparent in the team for what we do, what we plan, and we've been like that since I was put in charge. So that's not the issue. At the moment, clearly, you need to explore what's happening in the future, but it doesn't change anything of what I said before about George or about Kimi [Antonelli], about the line-up that I'm extremely happy to have.”
Russell hopes to settle his contract before the summer break, but is confident that he’ll still be in the seat come next season, “for me there’s nothing to worry about, because I don’t think I’m going anywhere and whoever my teammate is, I don’t care. So I just focus on driving.”
With the regulations changing in 2026, teams are looking towards the future–focused on building a winning team for the next era. It’s only natural that both teams and drivers explore their options. And while initial contact may have been made, nothing is set in stone. In fact, the upcoming regulation changes could just as easily be a reason to maintain consistency; after all, a team you know is better than one you don’t. Despite the relentless noise, both parties seem content with where they are.
For now.